drunken CFB week 4

[drunkguy]

last week:
4-5 -1.6 units

Overall:

9-9 dead even +0.0 units

tough week last week with Nebraska just missing a cover and Connecticut also failing me

Getting down early on

NC State -6.5 Texas Tech

NC State is very underrated. Should have beat Ohio St and has a tough loss to a very impressive Wake Forst team. Texas Tech is 2-0, beating up on SMU and New Mexico. NC State is a much tougher team snd the Red Raiders will have a difficult time dealing with this talent level.

Only question is NC State's mental and emotional health after two tough losses. Looking for a nice bounce back by the wolfpack at home this week. Line should definitely move up, so I will hit it now.

 

[drunkguy]

Add:

Kent St +24.5 Penn St

anyone who looked at the final score of the PSU-Nebraska game would have thought it was close. Nothing could be further from the truth. They gave up 337 yards on the ground and gained only 44. They only gave up 60 yards in the air, but that was on only 6 pass attempts. They had a very hard time sustaining any offensive drives whatsoever. This quite have easily have been a 28-3 final score.

The Lions are riddled with injuries lately: starting tight end Casey Williams is out for the year. Many injuries on the defensive, particularly Tamba Hali (status for this game unknown), also Sam Ruhe, Patrick Hall, Jeremiah Davis, Jay Alford. Looks like they will have a total of 7 defensive linemen healthy for this game. They already have been giving up an average of 245 rushing yards per game and gave 162 up to Temple, and now they will not be able to rotate people out effectively. Kent St averaging 179 rushing yards per game over comparable competition.

These are not the Nittany Lions of old. Their rankings among Div I schools:
pass efficiency - 103
total offense - 104
scoring offense - 99
rush defense - 114
turnover margin - 88

They have to be emotionally down after two straight losses in a row, and the fans are upset. The stadium will likely be filled with boos if the don't go out to an early lead.

They have scored 23 (temple), 14 (BC), and 10 (Nebraska) points this year. Kent St is not a tough opponent, but I question if they can even put up 24 points total. Even if they can, Paterno is known not to run up the score when he has the game under control. Kent St should be able to move the ball, so I will take the big points here.

P.S. line moving down from 25 to 24.5. if you are going to play make sure you get to it before you lose 24. But may be able to get better line later in the week when heavy fan money comes in on PSU...

 

[sammythesage]

you got the proper handle "DG". one team will be "up" after TWO losses and one team will be "down" after TWO losses?????

 

[drunkguy]

I did put as a warning in the NC State thread that they might be emotionally down, but I am thinking they will bounce back.

Quality of teams and expectations of the team and fans weigh heavily

Big difference between a team that got their ass kicked (Nebraska had twice as many yards as PSU and controlled the clock for 2/3 of the game) and a team coming off a close loss to the defending national champions in 3 OTs (both teams very close statistically in that one).

The fact that each have two losses is minor to me...the situations in which those losses occurred is worth considering

 

[sammythesage]

me thinks you got it backwards; examples
new eng. beaten like a drum 31-0 rolls back to kick jax.'s butt on the road no less.
wash. st. suffers a crushing loss in ot to nd, yet bounces back to clobber col. football is football no matter the level and who knows how the teams will react. by the way; you know as well as anybody joe pa used to run up the score on nobody's a lot worse than spurrior or bowden ever did.

 

[drunkguy]

sammy- thanks for the comments. I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens on Saturday.

Adding:

Arizona St +8 Iowa

Iowa not the same team they were last year and still very overrated. Did destroy a weak iowa St team lst week, but not a strong outing statistically, being outgained by almost 150 yds. Iowa also had weak showing in their win against Miami OH. ASU has had a creampuff schedule so far and has not been tested, but Walter should have a big day aginst Iowa secondary. Only thing that scares me is the number of touts that are picking ASU as an "underdog of the week".


Tennessee +3.5 Florida

Teo powerhouses, but Tennessee better defensively and on the ground. The road team has been strong in the series, with Tenessee winning last time in the swamp, and florida winning last year on the road, which adds revenge factor for the Vols. Looking for a close Tennessee win, but will take insurance with the +3.5.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding:

Arizona St +265 (0.5 units)



LSU -1 Georgia

Two great defenses in this matchup. The key is LSU's strong defensive line going against an inexperienced O line for Georgia (no returning starters). Georgia missing top wideout Gibson. Going to lay the small spread with a great LSU team at home in a night game.

 

[Dante]

Nice right ups Drunkguy...im with you on AS St good luck this weekend Sir!

 

[drunkguy]

thanks Dante. let's all win some money this weekend

before any gets on me, I'll point out the typo above that LSU is at 3:30, not a night game...gotta stop doing these before work when i'm still groggy

 

[drunkguy]

adding:

Hawaii +100 UNLV

Yes, UNLV did pull out a big upset last week. However, look at the stats and you will see a totally different story. UNLV managed only 187 yards total and was on the good side of a lot of turnovers. Hawaii was crushed by a very good (national contending) USC team. Chang should be able to light up UNLV.


Wake Forest -18.5 ECU

Don't be fooled by ECU's surprisingly strong showing last week against Miami, a team due for a let down and ovcerlooking this game anyway. ECU is one of the worst in Division I. Wake coming off a tough loss to a very underrated Purdue squad. ECU will not be able to stop the ground game and Wake should roll in this one.

Oregon +7.5 Michigan

Very tough to go against what might the #1 team in the country. However, Oregon is also a great squad, and getting more than a TD at home is too much to pass up. Should be an exciting, close game, so will back the home dog.


Central Florida +175 Syracuse

Central Florida is underrated and Syracuse is far from great UCF can air it out and syracuse secondary is suspect. Will take this one on the moneyline, as UCF should roll right over the orangemen this week.

 

[drunkguy]

Started off decent, but gave some back Thursday and late Saturday

Recap:

NC State -6.5 Texas Tech WIN
Kent St +24.5 Penn St WIN
Arizona St +8 Iowa LOSE
Tennessee +3.5 Florida WIN
Arizona St +265 (0.5 units) LOSE
LSU -1 Georgia WIN
Hawaii +100 UNLV LOSE
Wake Forest -18.5 ECU LOSE
Oregon +7.5 Michigan WIN
Central Florida +175 Syracuse LOSE

this week:


5-5 +0.3 units

year to date:

14-14 +0.3 units

 

[sammythesage]

nice call on ncst

 

[drunkguy]

thanks sammy

lot of games hit right near the number, so coulda done better or coulda done worse real easily. Kent St was a real close one for me.

looks like you did pretty decent yourself yesterday